Maldives and India are two neighborly countries in the Indian Ocean, facing each other with open arms for very friendly and close ties based on strategic, economic, and military mutual cooperation. However, the recent developments in Maldives have raised a stink over the future of their bilateral relations especially in the fields of defense and security.
A Change of Guard
The incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih won the presidential election in 2018 as part of a four-party coalition, including former President Mohamed Nasheed's Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), but lost to another unexpected political newsmaker of the current opposition from the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) in November 2023.
Muizzu, a former housing and infrastructure minister under authoritan regime of Abdulla Yameen, campaigned on nationalist platform focused on national sovereignty, economic development coupled with anti-corruption. He also slammed the Solih administration for being too pro-India, accusing it of compromising Maldives' interests and security.
A Change of Stance
Not long after assuming office, Muizzu declared that he would be reviewing a total of over 100 agreements signed with India during the Solih administration, including the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for cooperation in hydrography, which is valid until 2024.
Hydrography to the science of ocean, sea and water body study has been regarded as key for navigation, security as well as good environmental protection. India is an active member of the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) since 1955 and has a fleet of modern survey ships which partner with many countries of the Indian Ocean Region and beyond, in meeting their hydrographic needs as well.
He added that India should also withdraw all its soldiers from the Maldives who were deployed there in 2018 as part of a security assistance package following a political crisis that brought Yameen to impose a state of emergency and arrested several opposition leaders and judges. India had also supplied military equipments including helicopters and radars to the Maldives to boost their maritime surveillance and coastal security.
Moves by Muizzu have been seen as a clear indicator of the new Maldives Minister's intent to reverse the 'India first' policy adopted by the Solih administration, who seeking to restore and deepen the country's ties with India which had gone sour under Yameen having tilted towards China and entered into several controversial infrastructure and investment projects Beijing.
Solih had adopted India's vision of Indo-Pacific as a free, open and inclusive region and had also participated in several regional and multilateral initiatives undertaken by India, including the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) and the Quad, comprising India, the US, Japan and Australia.
A Challenge for India
This policy shift of Muizzu poses a major challenge for India which views the Maldives as one of the key partners of its 'Neighborhood First' and 'SAGAR' (Security and Growth for All in the Region) doctrines, and as a crucial link in its maritime security and connectivity strategy in the Indian Ocean.
India has also been concerned with China's growing footprint and influence in the Maldives, a constituent of its grand Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is a worldwide network of infrastructural and investment projects aimed at expanding not only China's economic but also strategic sway.
India responded cautiously and with recluse to the request of Muizzu, but at the same time reiterated to the sovereignty, security, and development of the Maldives.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi called upon Muizzu on the sidelines of the COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai on December 1, 2023, and discussed various aspects of bilateral cooperation including trade, tourism, health, and climate change. He also expressed India's readiness to continue assistance to Maldives in fight against COVID-19 pandemic, that had severe effects on economy and livelihoods of the island nation.
At the same time, India has so far refused form withdrawal of its troops at least and to terminate hydrographic agreement with the Maldives, and consultations fogged the issue.
India has also maintained its contacts and support for the opposition parties in Maldives, with special focus on MDP whose leader had been taking a pro-India and pro-democracy stand. India has also urged the Muizzu government to respect the democratic rights and freedoms of the Maldivian people and uphold the rule of law and independence of the judiciary.
Way Forward
The relations of Maldives and India have now reached the point of decision, a point where these differences may now be concluded with finality based on how the differences are managed and made common.
The Maldives is a sovereign and independent country with the right to pursue its national interests and foreign policy. Conversely, it should be equally mindful of the consequences its decisions and actions have on its own long-term stability and prosperity, as well as of the regional and global order.
Maldives should not fall in the trap of zero-sum game between India and China, instead it should seek balanced and diversified engagements with both as also its other regional and international partners.
On the other side, India should respect their choices and aspirations and it should not take its friendship and cooperation with Maldives for granted. India too should avoid getting seen as interfering or trying to impose its will and instead take a much more flexible and pragmatic approach to the situation, which is aware of changing realities and dynamics in Maldives and the Indian Ocean.
India should use its soft power and cultural affinity with Maldives in order to focus on enhancement of its economic and developmental assistance as well as its people to people's ties.
The Maldives and India have a shared destiny, goals in making the Indian Ocean peaceful, prosperous and secure. The two nations have a rich history of mutual trust and support as well as an extensive possibility for greater collaboration and partnership. Their differences must not overshadow them, on contrary they have to overcome the challenge together and see the opportunity it may bring. –(IVNTV)